U.S. government shutdown since Oct 1, 2025

The shutdown is about whether Democrats will be an opposing party or will capitulate to fascism.

Read: Trump Digs In On Anti-Trans Provisions In Shutdown Fight Message: The provisions are becoming a key sticking point in the ongoing fight to keep the government open. Erin Reed, Sep 23, 2025

Read: Republicans Privately Pushing Anti-Trans Funding Ban For ACA Subsidy Deal After Shutdown Compromise: The proposal, which was first detailed in the Wall Street Journal, could harm transgender people even in blue states if it becomes part of the negotiated deal. Erin Reed, Nov 25, 2025

"Nationally, the government is hurtling toward a shutdown, with Republicans demanding dozens of anti-LGBTQ+ riders—from bathroom bans on military bases to a sweeping federal funding ban on transgender care that could gut access nationwide. The fight hit a breaking point two days ago when Trump canceled negotiations with Democrats, citing in part their refusal to enshrine anti-trans discrimination into law. Where that standoff ends is uncertain." as Erin Reed (Sept 26, 2025)

Judge to block enforcement of administration’s “don’t say trans” school rule: The HHS threatened to block federal funds to schools that mention trans people. A judge is shutting that down. Faefyx Collington (They/Them), LGBTQ Nation, October 21, 2025

Read: Republicans Start Shutdown Payback As White House Blocks Blue State Funds The Trump administration announced a hold on a New York infrastructure project and threatened more layoffs for federal workers. Arthur Delaney and Igor Bobic, HuffPost, Oct 1, 2025

“.. This is the risk of shutting down the government and handing the keys to Russ Vought,” the Senate majority leader said .. @politico.com www.politico.com/live-updates...

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— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla.bsky.social) October 2, 2025 at 10:05 AM

MIKE LEE: Russ Vought has been dreaming about this moment since puberty MIKE JOHNSON: Russ Vought does not enjoy this responsibility

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) October 2, 2025 at 10:07 AM

Impeachment Articles Filed Against ‘Unelected Shadow President’ Russell Vought “Vought’s blatant abuse of power and complete disregard for the Constitution warrants immediate removal by Congress,” said Democratic Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove. Jake Johnson, Common Dreams, Aug 06, 2026

Bonica used to have to analyze data to show this kind of pattern, but now they just come out and say it

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— Jake Grumbach (@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social) October 2, 2025 at 2:18 PM

Read: Legal Experts Call Trump’s Response To The Shutdown ‘Extremely Alarming’ Federal workers must walk a free speech tightrope while the Trump administration openly flouts the rules. Brandi Buchman, HuffPost, Oct 2, 2025

Also:

"The White House suggested Tuesday that furloughed federal workers won’t necessarily get paid when the government eventually reopens, contrary to a law signed by President Donald Trump in 2019.

"The law states that all furloughed workers “shall be paid for the period of the lapse in appropriations,” also known as a government shutdown." (HuffPost, Oct 7)

Will Bunch reminds us in the Philadelphia Inquirer ("Why we can’t allow Trump to ban that other f-word," October 5, 2025):

"Too many lawmakers, and journalists, refuse to understand the fascist moment because their salary depends on not understanding it. But I’ve been struck this weekend by how one prominent political figure is actually getting it — properly framing the current government shutdown as more than a squabble over healthcare but a fight for democracy.

“Listen, I don’t think we’re asking for too much in that we are telling the president that if you want us to sign onto a budget, it can’t be a budget that funds the destruction of our democracy,“ Connecticut Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy told the New Republic’s essential Greg Sargent last week. ”I would be a sucker to agree to a budget that literally funds an operation to hunt me and my allies down — to imprison us, harass us, intimidate us.""

Image caption: Christians in the Roosevelt Room in the White House, Oct. 29, 2019. Official White House photo by Joyce Boghosian.

Margaret Sullivan, in American Crisis, Oct 5, 2025, says that "the larger story" is that "Democrats are determined to prevent huge increases in Americans’ health care costs by standing firm." And, while "the mainstream press is largely playing its usual “both-sides at fault” game...Americans nevertheless do understand the reality." Unfortunately:

"“Partisan bickering” was a favorite phrase in news alerts. Headlines featured how Democrats and Republicans “trade blame” and we heard a lot about “dueling measures.”

Here’s one from CBS News on Sunday that was typical enough: “Johnson, Schumer accuse each other of not being serious about negotiations as shutdown stretches into another week.”

These words are factual, but they fail to get the bigger picture across. They are accurate but not truthful in a larger sense."

The Republican shutdown means that nonessential federal employees like soldiers and TSA agents aren't being paid anymore, but rest assured that the truly vital work of this administration -- building a Dancing with the Stars ballroom for the dementia-addled president -- still goes on.

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— Kevin M. Kruse (@kevinmkruse.bsky.social) October 20, 2025 at 1:55 PM

Independent C-SPAN caller to Rep. Mark Alford: "You're taking credit for $50b that you just gave to the hospital industry. That's after you took away $150b. You don't take credit for just giving back a little bit of money after taking away so much. So quit lying. It just makes you look horrible."

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) October 10, 2025 at 8:42 AM

Despite allegedly trying to save money, in early October, Trump promised a $20 billion loan to Argentina, contingent on President Javier Milei staying in power, then doubled it, adding the second $20 billion on October 15. Bessent says bailout for Argentina will double to boost U.S. influence in region: The Trump administration is arranging another $20 billion infusion from banks and sovereign wealth funds to prop up the flailing Argentine peso. Jacob Bogage, David J. Lynch and David Feliba, Washington Post, October 15, 2025

This is why the Republicans chose Mike Johnson. The reason is skypoop.

"...another important reason why this will likely become the longest government shutdown ever and stretch on with no end in sight: President Donald Trump has usurped Congress’ power to appropriate and direct government spending and refuses to give it back. In doing so, Trump has broken any semblance of trust that Democrats may have that his end of any deal they strike will be honored after a bill is passed." (Paul Blumenthal, HuffPost, Oct 25, 2025)

Air traffic controllers not getting paid

"We're gonna crash some planes if you don't fund ICE."

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— Tim Onion (@bencollins.bsky.social) October 6, 2025 at 12:18 PM

October 28: The air traffic controllers have stopped getting paychecks (CNBC).

Government shutdown broke the food chain

Democrats betrayed Americans on healthcare

Democrats Must Reject The Premise Of Trans Healthcare Bans In Republican Healthcare Offer: Republicans' new healthcare bill would bar transgender healthcare as an essential health benefit, bar trans medicaid coverage, and would bar HSAs from considering trans healthcare medically necessary. Erin Reed, Dec 9, 2025

Tomorrow, on the Stories From The States podcast, host @fitzsimon.bsky.social will address SNAP benefits. The federal government is hinting at changes to SNAP. Some food banks are experiencing an increase in demand and now, they’re bracing themselves. www.newsfromthestates.com/podcast/stor...

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— States Newsroom (@statesnewsroom.com) December 11, 2025 at 12:41 PM

"They have watched their own constituents, who they are sworn to protect, be murdered and disappeared to concentration camps, and they have barely lifted a finger.

At long last, listen to them. They tell you we need a “strong Republican party.” They mean it. The main issue of the 2024 Presidential Election was who could be stronger on deporting immigrants. They have no intention of fighting fascism because fascism is what the wealth class needs right now and they are beholden to those billionaire benefactors. Everything else is window-dressing.

The Democratic Party stands in our way because it allows people who see that this is wrong and dangerous and awful to think this party will save them, that they’re playing some masterful game ala QAnon, and all they have to do is “trust the plan,” which is just another version of “vote blue no matter who.” It is a tension release, promising that they don’t have to get their hands dirty or risk their lives or livelihoods because “escape” is just one election away.

It is a sham. A ruse. A way to steal your money and your freedom.

Unless there is a major takeover of the Democratic Party by leftist outsiders, which the party has already shown a rabid willingness to do anything to stop, there is no saving this corporate body and transforming it into a vessel of actual resistance. Even if we are to embrace our destiny, link arms, and carry out collective action, we have already seen what the Democratic Party does in a moment of revolutionary action."
— Get Out of the Way: The Democratic Party Prevents Us From Fighting Fascism, Jared Yates Sexton, Dispatches From a Collapsing State, Jan 27, 2026

Bessent dismisses the threat of climate change and melting ice caps: "As we all know, the natural habitat for the Earth is actually water."

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— FactPost (@factpostnews.bsky.social) April 14, 2026 at 9:27 AM

Very important piece by Cerin Lindgrensavage and @davidasuper.bsky.social. This behavior by the administration is not only illegal, it is anti-constitutional. thehill.com/opinion/cong...

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— Josh Chafetz (@joshchafetz.bsky.social) July 20, 2026 at 8:53 AM

What we're witnessing is U.S. fascism

In a post last week on Democracy Americana, Thomas Zimmer reminds us that, on September 25, Trump

"released a presidential memo – an instrument quite similar to a presidential executive order – on “Countering Domestic Terrorism and Organized Political Violence.” It was entirely geared towards laying the groundwork for the type of comprehensive crackdown on the “Left” the Trumpists had been demanding since the murder of Charlie Kirk: The memo instructed the entire machinery of the federal government to employ an incredibly expansive definition of “domestic terrorism” to go after any organization or individual associated with leftist “anti-fascism.”"

This memo

"open[s] the door for virtually anyone in the United States – certainly anyone who is critical of Trump – to be harassed by the state as a domestic terrorist. If you believe that sounds hyperbolic, please read the memo yourself. ...my first reaction is that it is a breathtakingly authoritarian document. The only purpose it serves is to create a flexible instrument that could be used against anyone the regime deems an enemy. It employs a definition of “domestic terrorism” that is entirely directed against the bizarre phantasma of “the Left” as it exists in the feverish mind of someone like Stephen Miller – even going so far as to explicitly declare all “activities under the umbrella of self-described ‘anti-fascism’” as likely to be terroristic. Meanwhile, the memo widens the definition so much – including “organized doxing campaigns, swatting, rioting, looting, trespass, assault, destruction of property, threats of violence, and civil disorder” – that it becomes difficult to identify what act of resistance or disobedience the state couldn’t persecute as “domestic terrorism.”"

See also: You're Not Imagining It: The Same People Up In Arms Over Charlie Kirk Are Silent On ICE Shooting: Even Tucker Carlson is unsettled by the response to Renee Good's death. Brittany Wong, HuffPost, Jan 9, 2026

"The meme Bushart posted that prompted his arrest read: “This seems relevant today...” and featured President Donald Trump and the words, “We have to get over it.” That quote, the meme explained, was said by Trump in 2024 after a school shooting at Iowa’s Perry High School."
Tennessee Man Jailed Over Charlie Kirk Post Wins $835,000 Settlement: “I am pleased my First Amendment rights have been vindicated,” Larry Bushart said in a statement announcing the settlement Wednesday. R.J. Rico AP, HuffPost, May 20, 2026

Will Bunch reminds us today in the Philadelphia Inquirer ("Why we can’t allow Trump to ban that other f-word," October 5, 2025):

"The president, Vice President JD Vance, and their minions have seized on the actions of a few young, lone-wolf assassins to issue blanket condemnations seeking to vilify and, in essence, ban free speech that accurately describes America’s downward spiral into autocracy."

It matters.

"This isn’t some arcane dispute over language. The Trump regime is desperate to control the words of America’s political conversation because they want to normalize what they are doing right now, which is pursuing a rapid race to demolish democratic norms and institutions. Vance’s goal in his North Carolina speech is really to lump the most outrageous comments online with the bulk of legitimate dissent about the outrages that are happening right now from Chicago to the Caribbean."

They can try.

"It’s horrific that militarized cops are firing projectiles at working journalists, or that a reporter covering ICE raids in Atlanta can be arrested and deported to El Salvador. But they haven’t worked their way down to schlubby white boomer columnists — not yet — so I’m going to use the might of this keyboard until they take it away.

Words still not only matter, but have incredible power. What we are witnessing is American fascism. I am an anti-fascist."

Zachary B. Wolf, CNN, Oct 11:

“If we don’t have FREE SPEECH, then we just don’t have a FREE COUNTRY,” then-candidate Donald Trump said in a campaign video.

But less than nine months into his second term, he was explaining his administration’s stance this this way:

“We took the freedom of speech away,” he said at a White House event Wednesday [October 8] as he tried to explain his call to put people who burn the American flag behind bars for years despite a very clear Supreme Court decision that lists flag burning as free speech.

migrantinsider.com/p/scoop-appl...

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— David Bier (@davidjbier.bsky.social) October 8, 2025 at 10:51 AM

"There’s a strange circular relationship between the authoritarian movement in America symbolized or spearheaded by Donald Trump — whether or not he is truly its leader — and the European far right. It’s like a malevolent Ouroboros, where we can’t tell which is the head and which the tail, or which end is swallowing the other."
MAGA right’s new fascist man-crush: He’s been dead for 50 years In the early years of SNL, Francisco Franco was "still dead." But to his 21st-century fanboys, he's immortal By Andrew O'Hehir, Salon, Nov 16, 2025

"Heidi Reichinnek, a leader of Germany’s far-left Die Linke party, is 37, has tattoos, swears, and posts prolifically on TikTok. She wears friendship bracelets her supporters make for her, in reference to her love of Taylor Swift, and says she has some 300 or 400 by now. (“Tax the rich means Taylor Swift too, so don’t worry,” she said.) She speaks in rapid-fire sentences, and she became famous after a fiery speech in which she denounced the head of her country’s dominant center-right party for working with the far right, a maneuver that broke a long-standing taboo in a nation that was home to history’s most horrifying fascist movement."
She Fights Fascism in the Place Where It’s Scariest. Here’s What She Has Learned. Yes, they call her the “TikTok queen,” but Heidi Reichinnek insists there’s a far more important secret to her success. By Molly Olmstead, Slate, Nov 19, 2025

Stephen Miller is now arguing that assimilation is fundamentally impossible and that certain cultures are not compatible with Western civilization

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— John Q. Public (@publius24.bsky.social) November 28, 2025 at 12:14 AM

Was on Civic Forum with @rorytruex.bsky.social talking about US democracy. We talked about political inequality & minority rule in the US, with a focus on my research on the states. But then talk about what's new in the more acute democracy crisis of 2025 www.youtube.com/watch?v=tbxC...

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— Jake Grumbach (@jakemgrumbach.bsky.social) December 4, 2025 at 8:13 PM

Is It Too Late? No. But We Must Better Understand the Nature of the Battle, Sherrilyn Ifill, Sherrilyn's Newsletter, Dec 08, 2025

Whether It Is ICE or Local Police, the U.S. Has Normalised Anti-Democratic Law Enforcement Practices The Grotesque Excesses of ICE Sit Within the Broader Context of Police Brutality Sherrilyn Ifill, Sherrilyn's Newsletter, Jan 09, 2026

Stephen Miller, Jan 13, 2026:

"“To all ICE officers: You have federal immunity in the conduct of your duties. and anybody who lays a hand on you or tries to stop you or tries to obstruct you is committing a felony. You have immunity to perform your duties, and no one — no city official, no state official, no illegal alien, no leftist agitator or domestic insurrectionist — can prevent you from fulfilling your legal obligations and duties. And the Department of Justice has made clear that if officials cross that line into obstruction, into criminal conspiracy against the United States, or against ICE officers, then they will face justice.”"

Heather Cox Richardson and Joanne Freeman saying in Jan 2026 that the US government has essentially formally declared fascism.

"...Miller posted a complaint about how Democrats at the president’s speech on Tuesday [Feb 24, 2026] refused to stand and applaud disturbing descriptions of violence that he often linked to immigrants." (Stephen Miller Had A Wild 8-Hour Crash Out On X, And Only Stopped After Brutal Clapback: Miller had a meltdown because Jon Favreau challenged his rhetoric about Americans being “raped, tortured and murdered by foreign invaders.” Elyse Wanshel, Feb 26, 2026)

This hits hard: "Fascism – what Hannah Arendt called 'organized loneliness' – can only take root when people stop believing that their society will reward their lawfulness with an orderly and humane existence." Read the whole thread. This really crystalizes a problem that has been haunting me.

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— spaghootighost (@spaghootighost.bsky.social) April 17, 2026 at 5:46 AM

Supreme Court Hands Trump Full Power Over The Executive Branch: The conservative justices overturned 90 years of precedent to allow the president to fire almost any executive branch official for any reason at all. Paul Blumenthal, HuffPost, Jun 29, 2026

The Supreme Court's Seemingly Contradictory Trump Rulings Hinge On 1 Critical Element The Supreme Court's decisions allowing Trump to fire any agency official he wants, except at the Federal Reserve, look contradictory until you look at who benefits. Paul Blumenthal, HuffPost, Jun 29, 2026

Supreme Court expands Trump’s power to fire independent agency officials but lets Lisa Cook remain at Fed, CNN, June 29, 2026

Here's Jared Yates Sexton, "Notes on the Revolution: Reflections on the U.S. at 250: The American mythology is evaporating. What's left is necessary reality" (Jul 04, 2026):

"I have said before that Fascism is both theft and a collective breakdown. What we see now, as the clock ticks to 250, is the full-evolution of the material truth behind the mythology. This country, as it was founded and designed, was a machine for plunder, a fiction that allowed genocide and slavery and colonization and the stealing of resources from neighbors and employees. All that is left of the mythology and the fairytale is a group of millions dedicated religiously to the holding of the lie because the lie is what makes their barbarism possible. Hating others, seeing them as subhuman, and then stealing everything from them you can carry and setting the rest on fire is the full evolution of the material purposes of the Founding. It is your right, after all, under both the American fantasy and the operating system of capitalism, to be the worst person you can be regardless of the consequences."

Take the antidote: Psyching yourself up and in

Recent liturgy

"When people are burning books and trying to take away your access to education, what you should be doing now is reading.
When people are amping up the volume so that you don't know which way is up and left from right, go get quiet, right?
When you are feeling so disconnected from yourself, literally tap in.
When you are feeling like everyone around you is out to get you, go be in community, right?
Like, the antidote is in front of us. It is the opposite of what they are presenting. ... what you have to do is force yourself to do the opposite.
When I want to be alone is when I reach out. Right?
When I want to scream is when I get, like, quiet and still." — Danielle Moodie (48:28–49:10, 49:45–49:58)

And

"We don’t need to figure out a perfect world right now. What we need to do is figure out how we can participate in reality. We need to stop seeking escape and seek instead plug in, play a part, take some action out in this world that so desperately needs us. It’s time to accept reality, accept that it’s ugly out there, and accept that we’re the only ones who can change this world. The forces of fascism rely on you tuning out, running from reality, indulging in their fantasies. We have to reject their lies, reject the carrots they dangle, and instead run toward reality and toward active participation in this fucked up world." — J. P. Hill

And

"Rejecting fascism's reality generation – its illusions – is easier when you believe (correctly) that nothing is forever and that the pendulum never stops swinging. Sometimes it swings hard, sometimes it barely swings at all, but it always swings. Today you are told to believe the pendulum has been snapped off and thrown into a landfill. It's a nice story for those who want permanent power. Look closely though and you'll see the pendulum, ticking back and forth like it always has.

* * *

Opposing these people is as easy as not believing their bullshit. Laugh at the shadows cast upon that cave wall you keep in your pocket, the one that tells you what is real and what is not. Reject their messaging. Counter it.

* * *

The regime is commanding you to believe a lie: That is has no underbelly. Stop listening. Stop dooming."

— Denny Carter (Sept 25, 2025)

And

"There are times when I’m in denial about my own fear. ... I feel like I can start using the word evil, now, to describe those in power. They’re heeeeere, and they generate and foment hatred, they...encourage violence, they hoard wealth and resources, and don’t think twice about the harm they’re causing. They revel in it.

It walks, it lives, it breathes among us. It doesn’t require a soundtrack or admission fee. We may disagree on what to call them—authoritarians, fascists, whatever—but they, those in power, are the true evil, the real specters. They’re directing the waking nightmare we’re in.

Assemble your magic kits, your spells, your righteous poems, gather your wits, your allies, and your accomplices. See a showing of One Battle After Another. Take good care. I’m with you in spirit and in solidarity."

— Wendy C. Ortiz, "evil," Mommy's El Camino, October 5, 2025

Maybe this too, I guess

Don’t Just Do Nothing: 20 Things You Can Do to Counter Fascism, Nov 21, 2024

Both-sidesing: Democrats trying to impress Republicans on how harsh they can be on immigrants?

This person who identifies as an "abundance liberal" suggests that Democrats should propose taxing immigrants more for the purpose of (somehow?) impressing Republicans (who care about real numbers? who argue in good faith?).

I'm kind of shocked that anyone is still proposing technocratic solutions to the "debate" over immigration. Even if this were a good idea (and it is not), Republican elites and media will never tell their base about it. You can't policy your way out of a propaganda problem!

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— Michael Hobbes (@michaelhobbes.bsky.social) September 6, 2025 at 1:47 PM

There is no indication that republican leaders or voters even know what current immigration policy looks like. Their views are driven by Breitbart blowups about caravans, Haitians eating cats and MS-13. Change the policy all you want, they'll never give you an ounce of credit for it.

— Michael Hobbes (@michaelhobbes.bsky.social) September 6, 2025 at 1:53 PM

There is no compromise policy Democrats can offer Republicans to make them act normal on this issue. We simply have to state the basic reality — immigrants contribute to our country in myriad ways — and fight for it. I don't know how so many journalists convinced themselves this isn't an option.

— Michael Hobbes (@michaelhobbes.bsky.social) September 6, 2025 at 1:59 PM

Exactly. Exactly. We know there is no compromise to be had on immigration *BECAUSE DEMOCRATS HAVE TRIED TO BROKER ONE FOR 30 YEARS*. Three f’ing decades! As long as Jerusalem Demsas, who offered another “let’s hear the right out” proposal this week, has been alive!

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— Greg Greene (he/him/his) (@greene.haus) September 6, 2025 at 6:56 PM

If the punishment is going to happen, if you cannot stop it (And Democrats have never been able to stop it), then you need to extract cost for it; or else you're just allowing your enemies to shift costs onto you for nothing. You are building political externalities that make it more difficult for u

— jessdee.bsky.social (@jessdee.bsky.social) September 6, 2025 at 7:04 PM

Every Single Participant in NYT Focus Group Preferred Progressive Candidates Over Moderate Ones: “The Democratic Party needs to embrace voices that resonate with people,” said one participant. Julia Conley, Common Dreams, Feb 18, 2026

No democracy, but hope

Chris Kluwe tells Marisa Kabas (interview published today) that the US is currently under "weak authoritarian rule," which means "we still have the potential to get back our democracy. We just have to show up and fight for it," and that's why he's running for office even though currently there is no democracy.

KABAS: Do you think we still have a democracy?

KLUWE: Currently? No. I believe we are currently in authoritarianism, and I think that's been made very clear, both due to the fact that the Republicans, as well as the Supreme Court, refuse to reign Trump in. He's deploying the National Guard to multiple states. He's deploying the military into US cities. And he has publicly proclaimed that he wants to be a dictator. And call me silly, but when Donald Trump says he wants to do something, I listen, because whenever he says he wants to do something, he always tries to do that thing.

KABAS: I think running for office, though, shows some faith that a system still exists, right? That you can affect change from the inside in some way. So if we aren't living in a democracy, what do you hope to achieve by running and working within the system as it currently is?

KLUWE: So right now, we're currently under authoritarian rule, but it's still weak authoritarian rule. The courts are still pushing back on the lower levels, both federally and state, and there are a lot of states that are pushing back. Obviously, Newsom has been doing the redistricting stuff. Governor Pritzker has been talking about ‘you can't come into Chicago.’ I think I saw something in Philadelphia where if ICE or DHS breaks the law, they're going to prosecute and charge them. And so we still have the potential to get back our democracy. We just have to show up and fight for it.

I find this passage helpful because sometimes people do ask about the point of trying to leverage the old system at all if it's already broken and overtaken. The hope is that the old system may have some useful tools to take power from the authoritarians and build a better future.

In a post on Democracy Americana (September 28, 2025), Thomas Zimmer reflects on the sense of whiplash:

"Is Trump winning? Is he losing?

The only productive way forward is to reject the question. Binary categories of “Winning/losing” – or “weak/strong” – are just not very helpful right now. They tend to reproduce mood swings more than they help generate plausible analysis."

Zimmer says again, a few months later:

"While I share the general assessment that the MAGA assault has been running into trouble, I maintain that binary categories of Trump “winning vs losing” are not particularly helpful. They tend to reproduce mood swings more than they help generate plausible analysis. Every Trumpian embarrassment is destined to cause a new round of “Trump is weak, he is losing” pieces; every authoritarian escalation is accompanied by a chorus of “Democracy is dead, MAGA won” post-mortems. As unsatisfactory as that may feel, we should allow ourselves to grapple with the murkiness of what is a highly ambiguous, even contradictory moment in U.S. history.

One particular issue I have with the “Trump is losing” framework is that it tends to underestimate how quickly things could get out of hand. I don’t just mean that in a “Something bad could always happen” kind of way – everyone acknowledges that sort of general contingency. I am more concerned with how ideology and ineptitude may conspire to make escalation almost inevitable. MAGA is ideologically and psycho-politically incapable of moderating: It is a hysterical movement that exists in a constant state of imagined emergency: Under siege, enemies everywhere – there is no room for compromise or restraint. Every crisis, every defeat only heightens their sense of being under siege, legitimizing and amplifying calls to hit harder, more aggressively."
(The Limits of Violent Authoritarianism, Democracy Americana, Jan 20, 2026, for paid subscribers)

Trump isn't leaving peacefully or legally. All the signs are there. Here's another. www.cnn.com/2026/04/22/p...

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— Wajahat Ali (@wajali.bsky.social) April 22, 2026 at 6:35 PM

Real easy: Don't deliberately misgender people

In May, the Quakers in Britain published a Statement of policy on provision of transinclusive facilities on BYM’s estate.

They also wrote up a toilet presentation (PDF) in June.

On 26 June, an organization wrote to the Quakers. They identified themselves as Sex Matters to Quakers, apparently deriving their name from Helen Joyce's organization, Sex Matters. They also have an X account that says "Joined September 2023." The day after writing to the Quakers, they posted their complaint to Facebook. Their complaint is simply an elaboration of the idea that the category of women belongs to cis women, that trans women mustn't exist within it, and that trans/cis coexistence is a philosophical question that must be subjected to ongoing debate where the terms of the debate involve ongoing consultation with anti-trans people.

On 16 July, the Britain Yearly Meeting Trustees responded publicly (PDF), restating their policy. They said they don't answer to Helen Joyceists — not in the ethical sense of "answer," anyway. ("...as you highlighted, Sex Matters to Quakers is not a Quaker Recognised Body, and therefore there is no relationship of accountability between BYMT and it – we are accountable solely to Yearly Meeting.") They may, however, answer a letter in the mere sense of writing a letter: "We respond to you as a matter of courtesy."

At the end of the Quakers' five-page reply, they gave this list of pointers I rather like (I'm quoting it):

• Deliberate misgendering of a person is transphobia.
• Referring to trans women as men is transphobia.
• Assuming a trans person poses a risk simply for being trans is transphobic.
• Stating that trans men are vulnerable and “groomed” into transition is a transphobic trope.
• References to “trans activism” as anything other than the legitimate effort to protect and advocate for the rights of people who are trans or non-binary is transphobic.
• Alleging that Quakers have been “infiltrated” by trans activists is a transphobic conspiracy theory and we are particularly offended by it.
• The notion that supporting and advocating for the safety, wellbeing, and inclusion of trans people could be damaging to the Religious Society’s reputation, or even “might be the thing that finally destroys them” is shocking and dangerous. It is fearmongering, threatening, and extreme.

A reframe of these tips I might use and offer to others:

People belong to a gender on their own say-so. Don't deliberately call someone by a gender other than what they say they are. Don't assume that trans women are predators, that trans men are helpless victims of someone who convinced them that they're trans, that trans people in general are delusional, or that transness itself puts others at risk. Apart from activism for trans rights, there's no such thing as "trans activism" — so don't use that phrase as a bogeyman, and don't imply that cis people who are trans-inclusive have been somehow infiltrated, captured, brainwashed etc. by trans people or by some trans-inclusive agenda that has forced them to speak in a trans-inclusive way. Trans and cis people alike can mutually support each other's safety, wellbeing, and inclusion. Trans inclusion will not undermine our shared civilization (in which trans people already live and have always lived) and there is probably no reason to expect it will sink any particular organization.

DC takeover is a 'red trial balloon'

Brad Reed:

"In a post on his Truth Social page on Monday morning, Trump framed the decision to deploy the National Guard as necessary to combat crime in the nation's capital.

"Washington, D.C. will be LIBERATED today!" Trump claimed. "Crime, Savagery, Filth, and Scum will DISAPPEAR. I will, MAKE OUR CAPITAL GREAT AGAIN! The days of ruthlessly killing, or hurting, innocent people, are OVER!"

However, the president's claim that the National Guard is needed to protect Washington, D.C. residents from purportedly unprecedented criminal violence does not hold water given that the city has seen a dramatic fall in crime recently.

* * *

Karen Attiah, a columnist for The Washington Post, warned her Bluesky followers against writing off the deployment as an effort by the president to distract from his administration's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein scandal.

"Threats of the militarization of cities—including D.C., which has been fighting for self determination for generations—isn't a 'distraction,'" she said. "It's a massive, giant, red trial balloon for what an American president can do [in] YOUR city... I need people to wake up.""

— Trump Plan to Deploy National Guard in DC Called 'Giant, Red Trial Balloon': "Trump's move to mobilize the National Guard against Americans in D.C. is another telltale sign of his authoritarian ambitions," said Democratic Illinois congressional candidate Kat Abughazaleh. Common Dreams, August 11, 2025

Brad Reed again:

"Shortly after Trump made his announcement, Washington, D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb indicated that he was not taking the president's attempt to take over his city's police force lying down.

"The administration's actions are unprecedented, unnecessary, and unlawful," he declared in a post on X. "There is no crime emergency in the District of Columbia. Violent crime in D.C. reached historic 30-year lows last year, and is down another 26% so far this year. We are considering all of our options and will do what is necessary to protect the rights and safety of District residents."

— Trump Says 'Other Cities Are Hopefully Watching' as He Deploys National Guard, Takes Over DC Police: "The administration's actions are unprecedented, unnecessary, and unlawful," declared Washington, D.C. Attorney General Brian Schwalb. Common Dreams, August 11, 2025

Hapless humanoid holding balloon by OpenClipart-Vectors from Pixabay

Balloon envelope by Hans from Pixabay

Arthur Delaney: "It’s the first time a president has invoked the D.C. Home Rule Act of 1973 to take over the city’s police, but it’s become routine for Trump to declare dubious emergencies expanding his power." (Trump’s D.C. Police Takeover Is His Latest Made-Up ‘Emergency’ Power Grab: The president offered misleading statements about crime trends in the nation’s capital. HuffPost, Aug 11, 2025)

A year ago, Judd Legum wrote:

"Violent crime, however, is not "skyrocketing" in D.C. in 2024. According to data maintained by the D.C. Metropolitan Police, after a significant increase last year, violent crime is down 27% through May 17 compared to 2023. This includes a 24% reduction in homicide, a 29% drop in assault with a dangerous weapon, and a 27% decline in robbery."

— "The truth about crime in DC", Popular Information, May 20, 2024

Speaking as a DC resident: statehood now. It is absurd that Trump can do this in our city.

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— Aaron Reichlin-Melnick (@reichlinmelnick.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 9:05 PM

i find this image so fascinating. it is both a literal example of authoritarianism but also a second-hand reproduction of the aesthetics of other authoritarian states. it's like a simulacra of authoritarianism whose purpose is to attempt to make the simulacra real.

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— jamelle (@jamellebouie.net) August 28, 2025 at 8:38 AM

Walter Benjamin warned us about this. Fascism is all about reproducing aesthetics artificially until the artificiality itself becomes more real than what it imitates.

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— Joel S. (@joelhs.bsky.social) August 28, 2025 at 12:00 PM

Martin Austermuhle's article, "What to know about Trump’s deployment of federal police in D.C.: Republicans paint D.C. as a lawless war zone that only they can fix" (6 min read, The 51st, 8 Aug)

Ashraf Khalil's article, "National Guard troops begin arriving amid Trump's Washington, DC, takeover: The law lets Trump control the police department for a month, but how aggressive the federal presence will be and how it could play out remained open questions" (Associated Press, 12 Aug)

REPORTER: There are people upset with the president, believing the National Guard members shouldn't have been there PIRRO: I don't even wanna talk about whether they should've been there. We ought to kiss the ground and thank God that the president said it's time to bring in more law enforcement

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) November 27, 2025 at 9:45 AM

The Intercept wrote in a December 6, 2025 email to its readers:

Donald Trump’s military occupation of U.S. cities has already cost the American public $473 billion, according to an expert estimate provided exclusively to The Intercept.

* * *

Through mid-November, the estimated cost per city for Trump’s National Guard deployment is:

$270 million – Washington, DC
$172 million – Los Angeles, CA
$15 million – Portland, OR
$13 million – Chicago, IL
$3 million – Memphis, TN

‘Minneapolis Is the Test Case’: Trump Threatens Insurrection Act to Put Down Protests “The Insurrection Act was always the plan,” warned one critic of the president. Brad Reed, Common Dreams, Jan 15, 2026

Thomas Zimmer says: "In an immediate sense, the Insurrection Act would allow Trump to militarize the conflict even further, to put more people with guns in the streets of Minneapolis. It could potentially establish an extremely dangerous precedent, eroding the barriers against using the Insurrection Act as a vehicle to suppress protest. But the Insurrection Act, as much as Trump wants us to believe otherwise, does not suspend the constitution and civil liberties, it does not establish martial law or a military dictatorship. Federal troops patrolling the streets would still be constrained by the law, restricted to regular law enforcement powers." (The Limits of Violent Authoritarianism, Jan 20, 2026, for paid subscribers)

Trump Is Threatening To ‘Take Back’ DC Based On Who Wins Mayoral Primary The president said he "wouldn't like it" if Janeese Lewis George, the Democratic front-runner who has vowed to fight Trump's overreach, wins. Arthur Delaney and Jennifer Bendery, Jun 16, 2026

Wow: The National Guard has signed a $292 million contract to house thousands of troops deployed to D.C. in 2,000 apartments in the city, instead of in hotels or other places where they've been put up. www.notus.org/defense/nati...

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— Martin Austermuhle (@maustermuhle.bsky.social) July 24, 2026 at 12:52 PM

Keeping National Guard In D.C. Until 2029 Will Cost A Fortune, HuffPost, 2026