With some exceptions like 1996 and 2008, U.S. presidential elections are coin flips. We just do not know. The fact that neither pulls ahead doesn't mean that either candidate is running ineffectively.
“why is the election a coin flip” every single presidential election since 2000 — basically other than 2008 — has been essentially a coin flip in the polls. if you ignore ‘08, the last time the outcome was essentially known in advance was in *1996*
— jamelle (@jamellebouie.net) October 27, 2024 at 11:41 AM
This election, though, is indeed especially close. CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten said in October: "Based upon the polls at this point, we are heading into the election with the closest polls in the Electoral College that we have ever seen at least over the last 50 years."
there is this belief that it should be easy to win a presidential election against a clearly unfit opponent and that if you haven’t opened up a big lead in polls, it’s because you’re running a bad campaign. i’m here to tell you that there is just nothing to support this supposition.
— jamelle (@jamellebouie.net) October 27, 2024 at 11:48 AM
My opinion: Rather than blaming the Black candidate for not outperforming the racist candidate in public opinion, please blame the racist candidate for his racism. It's far more productive.
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