At the Iowa Republican caucuses on January 15, 2024 — the first in the nation to caucus or primary &mash; Donald Trump received 51% of the popular vote, Ron DeSantis was a distant second with a little over 21%, Nikki Haley was third with 19%. Vivek Ramaswamy approached 8% and Asa Hutchinson received less than 1%, but they've since dropped out. When Ramaswamy dropped out, he endorsed Trump. We can anticipate that some DeSantis or Haley voters will also vote Trump.
Trump supporters include both rich and poor people
A reminder:
Jamelle Bouie skeets today: "The Trump movement is both a movement of reactionary property owners and one of less advantaged people with an affective investment in the social order." That is, Trump supporters are both rich and poor. The rich are defending their money; the poor are defending their whiteness.
It's not an economic agenda, it's an anti-democracy agenda
More, though, they're attacking democracy. Whatever their personal character or intentions may be, that is the effect of their political choice. Parker Molloy has a good article today: We Really Don't Have to "Understand" Trump Voters Anymore: This isn't 2016 or 2020. It's 2024. We know who they are. (The Present Age, January 16, 2024):
"Empathy is vital in a divided society," Molloy grants, "but recognizing when choices breach ethical and democratic norms is equally important. The 2024 landscape has shifted dramatically. We're not just dealing with voters disenchanted by the perceived political establishment." Today's debate over Trump is about "endorsing a candidate whose tenure and post-presidential period are marred by unprecedented assaults on democratic institutions, numerous criminal investigations, and a proven track record of fostering division" and "comprehending why they [his supporters] continue to back someone who has repeatedly compromised the very essence of democracy." Trump supporters, Molloy continues, "are opting for a candidate whose actions consistently demonstrate a disregard for the rule of law and democratic principles. Supporting Trump after all that has transpired is an implicit endorsement of these actions and an acceptance of an America fundamentally incompatible with democratic values."
"What ongoing support for Trump represents," Molloy says, is something "beyond mere political preference" and isn't solely based on "someone’s economic situation or dissatisfaction with politics." The nature of the choice has changed. So, "we don’t need to understand this choice anymore. Instead, we must recognize it for what it is: a threat to the fundamental principles of democracy and to the very idea of America itself." Today, we need to "acknowledg[e] the consequences of their choice."
See this weird campaign behavior
Ramaswamy, endorsing Trump, is suddenly telling everyone else to stop running, even though he himself was running against Trump until January 15.
Vivek Ramaswamy Wants Trump’s Rivals To Drop Out Of The 2024 GOP Primary: “I think Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley would actually, at this point, do this country and this party a service by stepping aside,” the former GOP presidential candidate said. Marita Vlachou, HuffPost, Jan 17, 2024
Nikki Haley wants to be on a debate stage with Trump. It is mathematically possible she could pull into a close second place in time for a debate, but knowing what we know about the phenomenon of Trumpism, she's not going to outplace him by normal campaign tactics (like a good "debate" performance). She may be able to take the Republican nomination if Trump were to swiftly very go to jail (though realistically his criminal indictments are moving so slowly that they won't outpace the party nomination timeline), or even the presidency if a Trump–Haley ticket were elected in November and then (perhaps shortly before the election or at some point after the election or inauguration) Trump were to go to jail.
However, the New Hampshire primary election will come a week later, and there, Haley and Trump are each polling at 40%, with DeSantis effectively not a contender at 4%.
Anyhow, whatever Haley is thinking, ABC says there's no point having any more Republican debates:
ABC Calls Off Next GOP Debate After Nikki Haley Says She Won't Appear Without Trump: “The next debate I do will either be with Donald Trump or with Joe Biden," Haley said. Nick Visser, HuffPost, Jan 16, 2024
And Trump, of course, is being racist toward Haley, calling her by a name she doesn't use, solely for the purpose of "othering" her:
Trump attacks Haley while referring to her by her first name Nimarata, Kate Sullivan, CNN, January 17, 2024
On January 24, 2024, following his victory over Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire primary the day before, he posted to Truth Social: “Anybody that makes a ‘Contribution’ to Birdbrain [Nikki Haley], from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp. We don’t want them, and will not accept them..."
In Haley's January 31 radio appearance:
"'If that whole state says, 'We don't want to be part of America anymore,' I mean, that's their decision to make,' Haley said, though she also noted, 'Let's talk about what's reality. Texas isn't going to secede.'
Asked if she still believes that states generally have the right to secede, a sentiment she expressed on camera during her initial run for governor of South Carolina, Haley said that 'states have the right to make the decisions that their people want to make.'"
She walked it back, just as a few weeks earlier she'd walked back her claim that the Civil War was about “the freedoms of what people could and couldn’t do.”
Steve Bannon's agenda
Conor Lynch writes for Salon (Jan 20), in "The Supreme Court looks set to make Steve Bannon's dream come true," that Trump, shortly before Biden was elected in 2020,"signed an executive order known as 'Schedule F,' which would have stripped civil service protections from tens or even hundreds of thousands of employees had it been implemented. ...[this] was an overt attempt to politicize the bureaucracy. It would have empowered the president to easily purge the civil service of any senior or mid-level officials deemed politically suspect or insufficiently loyal.
Today Schedule F has more or less become doctrine on the right. ... All the major Republican presidential candidates have promised to reinstate some version of the executive order, which President Biden rescinded upon entering office. Indeed, most candidates have even tried to outdo Trump in both their policies and rhetoric.
The supposed 'moderate' in the race, former South Carolina governor and UN ambassador under Trump, Nikki Haley, has put forward an even more radical plan than Schedule F that would not just strip civil service protections but introduce five-year term limits for all positions in the federal workforce — from air traffic controllers and public health inspectors to park rangers and Social Security administrators. As Washington Post columnist Catherine Rampell notes, this would effectively 'destroy the basic machinery of government' — which might just be the point."
Canadians are saying
Already, "49 percent of Canadians believe the U.S. is becoming an authoritarian state," and 64 percent believe that "U.S. democracy cannot survive another four years of Donald Trump." (thenewcivilrightsmovement.com) The poll was conducted January 9–11, 2024.
He knows he's an outlaw
HuffPost tries out this message:
Trump For The First Time Concedes That His Actions May Have Been Illegal: In an all-caps, middle-of-the-night rant about his Jan. 6 case, the former president said that he deserved total immunity, even for things that "CROSS THE LINE." S.V. Date, HuffPost, Jan 18, 2024
Yes. It's just not shocking. He's been asking for immunity for a long time. That means he knows he looks guilty.
Right-wing agents have funding
"This Pa. activist is the source of false and flawed election claims gaining traction across the country," Carter Walker, Votebeat, Philly Inquirer
He's being mentored
"Viktor Orbán is taking his blueprint on dismantling democracy to Mar-a-Lago.
The Hungarian prime minister first won power through a democratic election, then proceeded to weaken the institutions of that democracy by eroding the legal system, firing civil servants, politicizing business, attacking the press and intimidating opposition parties and demagoguing migration.
Former President Donald Trump has left no doubt that he’d try something similar in the United States if he wins a second term – so the presumptive GOP nominee will presumably be eager to compare notes when he hosts Orbán in Florida on Friday.
The prime minister isn’t meeting Biden administration officials. (A Biden administration official told CNN’s Betsy Klein that no invitation for a meeting between the current US president and Hungarian leader was extended.) Instead, he’s choosing to meet the man he hopes will again be US president next year. The two men have a long history of mutual admiration. The fact that one of Trump’s first moves since becoming presumptive GOP nominee this week is to meet a European autocrat speaks volumes."
— "Orbán meeting offers preview of Trump’s 2nd-term strongman idealizations," Stephen Collinson, CNN, March 8, 2024
"'He's Looking For Dictatorship': Joe Biden Rips Viktor Orbán's Mar-A-Lago Visit: The U.S. president's remarks arrived on the same day that his predecessor praised the autocratic Hungarian leader as 'fantastic.'" Ben Blanchet, HuffPost, Mar 9, 2024
Behavior
"...a fundraiser for the Johnson County GOP featured an effigy of President Joe Biden that attendees could pay to physically assault.
Video...shows people punching, kicking and swinging a bat at a Biden mannequin wearing a “Let’s Go Brandon” shirt.
“This booth was hosted by a Karate school to promote their self defense class,” Maria Holiday, who chairs the Johnson County Republican Party, told The Kansas City Star.
Video of people kicking the Biden dummy was uploaded to the video platform Rumble, but later deleted."
— A Kansas GOP Fundraiser Let People Kick And Punch A Biden Effigy, The attacks on the Biden mannequin were later condemned by some state GOP officials. David Moye, Mar 11, 2024
"Trump’s proposals are terrifying. But they’re also remarkably incoherent. What’s most striking in the interview is that Trump, even after four years as president, has virtually no grasp on any policy issue beyond empty talking points, most of which are lies. When asked how he will implement his plans, he waffles, obfuscates, and delivers a stream of non sequitur boasts about how great he is or about how other people have said that he’s great. He lies all the time, but many of his statements on core policy issues are so garbled and gassy they don’t even qualify as lies. It’s like interacting with a chatbot programmed by a fascist parrot.
Trump’s blank, aggressive ignorance shouldn’t be a comfort. He has shown, over and over, that incompetence doesn’t have to undermine evil intent; often it can exacerbate it. He offers a vision of a presidency of cruelty and violence disavowed as it occurs, with every abuse of power accompanied by a vague flurry of denials and endless self-hagiography. Trump promises us, over and over, that he will do harm, and that he will learn nothing."
— He's not even trying to hide it Trump's Time Magazine interview exposes a malevolent fool. NOAH BERLATSKY, publicnotice.co, May 2, 2024
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