Wednesday, August 23, 2023

Climate: non-linear changes, tipping points, and 3°C obliteration

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Feb 8, 2020 Ben See tweets: A devastating non-linear climate event is about to shock humanity and it will probably have something to do with the Arctic. 1. 95% of old ice gone 2. ice free by 2021-2031 3. fastest warming place on Earth 4. CH₄ release now unprecedented 5. permafrost collapse is irreversible

See these articles:

Risks of 'domino effect' of tipping points greater than thought, study says, Guardian, December 20, 2018

The Last Butterflies? Nick Haddad, Scientific American, September 19, 2019

Dr. Genevieve Guenther tweets on Aug 22, 2023: It is very hard to write about the projected catastrophes of 3°C of warming. I keep having to step away from my desk to cry. Mad respect to the scientists & journalists who write about this stuff, rather than the comparatively (emotionally) easier stuff of political malfeasance.
Glen Peters, Aug 19 2023 tweets: According to the #IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report, to limit global warming to '1.5°C with no or limited overshoot', then global CO2 emissions decline: * 48% in 6 years * 80% in 14 years * 99% in 24 years (thanks @_david_ho_ for reminding me to remind people)

Here's the IPCC synthesis Peters is linking to.

In response to Peters, David Ho says:

Aug 23, 2023 David Ho tweets: Even if CO₂ emissions decreased annually as much as during the pandemic lockdown, we wouldn't achieve our climate targets. While individuals made huge sacrifices, the system remained. This shows that individual action will not solve climate change. We need the system to change.

  "We’re murdering the planet right now, in case you didn’t know. Or if we’re not murdering it, we’re making it uninhabitable for ourselves specifically, because we seem to believe we can’t afford to keep it inhabitable.
  It seems like a bad time to engage in fights to murder each other, but the urges to murder the planet and to murder each other seem conjoined. It might be a good time to fight whatever urges are leading us to do such wasteful things in a time of great need."
— A.R. Moxon, "Hurting The Right People": It has happened before, but there is nothing to compare it to now. Spirits of harm and lack; spirits of solidarity and abundance. The Reframe (Substack), Oct. 14, 2023

See also: "Climate Change is Expensive, But That’s Not the Point". It's a 10-minute read on Medium.

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