U.S. presidential elections are coin flips

With some exceptions like 1996 and 2008, U.S. presidential elections are coin flips. We just do not know. The fact that neither pulls ahead doesn't mean that either candidate is running ineffectively.

“why is the election a coin flip” every single presidential election since 2000 — basically other than 2008 — has been essentially a coin flip in the polls. if you ignore ‘08, the last time the outcome was essentially known in advance was in *1996*

— jamelle (@jamellebouie.net) October 27, 2024 at 11:41 AM

This election, though, is indeed especially close. CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten said in October: "Based upon the polls at this point, we are heading into the election with the closest polls in the Electoral College that we have ever seen at least over the last 50 years."

there is this belief that it should be easy to win a presidential election against a clearly unfit opponent and that if you haven’t opened up a big lead in polls, it’s because you’re running a bad campaign. i’m here to tell you that there is just nothing to support this supposition.

— jamelle (@jamellebouie.net) October 27, 2024 at 11:48 AM

My opinion: Rather than blaming the Black candidate for not outperforming the racist candidate in public opinion, please blame the racist candidate for his racism. It's far more productive.

Nebraska

It can’t be stressed enough that what Nebraska Republicans did here was essentially a criminal conspiracy to unlawfully deny voting rights to qualified citizens. A great outcome, but a conscience-shocking story of corrupt public officials breaking the law. slate.com/news-and-pol...

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— Mark Joseph Stern (@mjsdc.bsky.social) October 16, 2024 at 6:37 PM

Trump won 59% of the Nebraska vote and Harris won 39%.

Post-inauguration

"There are still elections, but the rules have been altered: there are certain obstacles, certain disadvantages if you are not with the party of power. It will seem easier at first to try to change things from within. Then it will be easier not to change things."
A view from north of the border, Robert Reich, Jan 24, 2025

For the 2026 midterms, the White House is denying it's normal for vote tallies to update as the votes are counted:

"...a PolitiFact public service announcement explaining why results in some races can change as the night goes on and more votes are counted:

“If you go to bed on election night and don’t know who won a midterm congressional race, that’s normal. And if you wake up the next morning and find that a candidate who was behind hours earlier has since pulled ahead, that’s normal, too.”

The White House account simply responded:

“No, it isn’t.”"

— Trump White House Has Worrying Response To Basic Election Night Explainer: The White House’s post drew disbelief and fear. Lee Moran, HuffPost, Nov 2, 2026