With some exceptions like 1996 and 2008, U.S. presidential elections are coin flips. We just do not know. The fact that neither pulls ahead doesn't mean that either candidate is running ineffectively.
This election, though, is indeed especially close. CNN’s senior political data reporter Harry Enten said in October: "Based upon the polls at this point, we are heading into the election with the closest polls in the Electoral College that we have ever seen at least over the last 50 years."
My opinion: Rather than blaming the Black candidate for not outperforming the racist candidate in public opinion, please blame the racist candidate for his racism. It's far more productive.
Post-inauguration
"There are still elections, but the rules have been altered: there are certain obstacles, certain disadvantages if you are not with the party of power. It will seem easier at first to try to change things from within. Then it will be easier not to change things."
A view from north of the border, Robert Reich, Jan 24, 2025
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