Showing posts with label plague. Show all posts
Showing posts with label plague. Show all posts

Monday, March 23, 2020

Twitter allows bots to spread false information about COVID-19

Here's an example of a Twitter bot sharing false information.

What looks wrong about this? First of all, I personally remember the H1N1 flu. People were initially concerned about it, but it turned out to be a regular flu. At least one of my close family members eventually was diagnosed with it, had only mild symptoms, and was told not to worry. I don't even remember if I had it. The idea that H1N1 killed one of out every five sufferers is simply not plausible to me; it does not track with my own memory.

How do I check the data in this image? Conveniently for me, the fakers left the news outlet's logo, "Business Insider," in the image of the chart. Perhaps this was intentional, to make the chart appear more official. However, it also allows me to easily research whether this is indeed a Business Insider chart. I simply Google the name of the publication together with the title or keywords from the alleged material ["Business Insider" "Wuhan coronavirus compared to other major viruses"].

Here's the real information. The Business Insider chart (from an article dated 30 January 2020, viewed 23 March 2020) is different from what the bot shared on Twitter. It's clearly modified to make the 2009 H1N1 virus look more dangerous than it was.

Another difference between the charts is that the fake one has "Wuhan coronavirus" data updated as of 30 January, while the real one has "COVID-19" data checked again as of 4 February. Business Insider's original chart indeed likely used the name "Wuhan coronavirus" (it's still used in their article). The name "COVID-19" was probably swapped out later, as that name was announced on 11 February, so Business Insider probably updated their chart later to reflect the new name (and didn't provide a new "as of" date, because the data is still only current as of 4 February).

The difference in the name of the coronavirus is therefore not concerning; Business Insider is entitled to update their own images at any time to reflect better terminology. What is concerning is the difference in the H1N1 data from 2009, which could not have changed. The H1N1 virus ultimately had a fatality rate of 0.02%. The false chart is claiming that H1N1 was around 870 times more lethal than it was.

An altered image of a chart originally published on Business Insider. The data has been changed, and a bot shared it on Twitter.
The real image, as viewed today on Business Insider.

You'll notice I edited the JPGs directly to indicate which is false and which is real. I want you to know the reason why I put that information in the JPG and not merely as text captions within this blog post! It's because I don't want the false JPG to spread any further.

And who is responsible for the spread of false information on social media? The people who create these bots, and the Twitter executives who allow the bots to exist.

A Bot Sentinel report showing that the user who shared the false image is likely a bot.

Sunday, March 22, 2020

Throat symptoms: 'Flu' or air pollution?

On self-diagnosis in time of plague.

On 6 March 2020, I felt a slight tickle in my throat. I wasn't coughing, nor did I have any other symptoms of cold. It was barely identifiable as a "symptom" of anything whatsoever, not even a small cold. It happened to arise the same day that Colombia confirmed its first coronavirus diagnosis, so, regardless of whatever symptoms anyone might have had that day, it seemed highly unlikely that any given person in Colombia would also have that virus. So I didn't think it was worth mentioning to anyone as a complaint on any level about anything since it was so minor and barely noticeable.

Over two weeks later, the tickle in my throat was still present. It cannot possibly be coronavirus (symptoms of which peak around day 7 or 8, I hear). Suddenly, I realize what it is.

The air quality in Bogotá has been poor for several weeks. This is a known problem. According to scientific measurements, my neighborhood is affected to a medium degree compared against other neighborhoods in the city. Here are screenshots of data from AQICN.org (visit the website for real-time updates). I placed arrows in the screenshots to indicate the onset of my throat symptoms. The timing corresponds to an increase in pollution.

PM2.5


NO2


O3


Even several days of citywide self-enforced quarantine — which has almost entirely eliminated road traffic on the 8-lane road on which I live, for one example — has not improved the air quality much. The particulates are coming from smoke in other parts of Colombia and Venezuela.

It's nice to know it's not a virus. It's unpleasant that there is general air pollution.

"Hell is so much easier to picture. The recent U.N. report on the climate forecasts, with devastating frankness, worldwide catastrophe, absent a sudden upsurge of yet undetectable stewardship and coöperation. Meanwhile, Trump’s E.P.A. has dismantled an expert panel on air pollution. This is, of course, a disaster. Nobody has a right to feel very optimistic about the outcome, and there’s a vast unfairness at work: even the most ardent recyclers and carbon tiptoers—not to mention those without a wide range of options when it comes to what and how they consume—will feel the burn. But, here, as almost nowhere else in the visible world, the lines of cause and effect, neglect and decay, sin and punishment, are plain. You sow the coal and reap the whirlwind. Heat the air, and let the icebergs roll on righteously, like a mighty stream. First comes the flood, then comes the fire. It matters, very much, what you do." — "How the Idea of Hell Has Shaped the Way We Think: For centuries, we’ve given lavish attention to the specifics of punishment, and left Heaven woefully under-sketched. Vinson Cunningham, The New Yorker, January 14, 2019

Update, March 28, 2020: Here's a map of how European air pollution has reduced during quarantine for coronavirus. One scientist is quoted as giving this context: "the way our economies operate, absent pandemics, has massive hidden health costs, and it takes a pandemic to help see that."

2026 air pollution map

MAP: Track the air quality across the US, Byron Manley, Curt Merrill, Renée Rigdon, Matt Stiles, CNN, July 17, 2026

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