Wednesday, November 22, 2023

What's left of the 1.5°C climate goal

Zeke Hausfather on Twitter, Nov 21, 2023: Great piece in 
@Nature today exploring if its too late to keep warming below 1.5C (yes, at least without overshoot) but also highlighting the accelerating energy transition that is occurring worldwide. I was happy to help with a few figures in the piece

See the article: Is it too late to keep global warming below 1.5 °C? The challenge in 7 charts. Chances are rapidly disappearing to limit Earth’s temperature rise to the globally agreed mark, but researchers say there are some positive signs of progress. Jeff Tollefson, Nature, 21 November 2023

See also: "Who are the polluter elite and how can we tackle carbon inequality?," Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, November 22, 2023:

"The richest 1% of people are responsible for as much carbon output as the poorest 66%, research from Oxfam shows. Luxury lifestyles including frequent flying, driving large cars, owning many houses, and a rich diet, are among the reasons for the huge imbalance.

Jason Hickel, an economist, argues: '...Right now, millionaires alone are on track to burn 72% of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C. The purchasing power of the very rich needs to be curtailed. We are devoting huge amounts of energy to facilitate the excess consumption of the ruling class...'"

And:

"And, yes, there are good news stories, even on the environment beat: the extraordinary expansion of renewable energy has exceeded even the most optimistic forecasts (though a huge share of the extra supply has been taken up by the extra demand of artificial intelligence, cryptocurrencies and social media); carbon emissions might actually fall this year (though analysts have been saying that for years and if and when it does happen, the reductions will certainly be too shallow to prevent global heating from passing 1.5C, probably 2C and entirely possibly 3C or 4C); and the human population may peak mid-century (which would give other species more breathing space as long as they are not already extinct by then)." — Jonathan Watts, Would abandoning false hope help us to tackle the climate crisis?, The Guardian, Oct 24, 2024

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