Your chances of getting literary representation

I've submitted directly to small presses, but I've never queried a book manuscript to an agent. If I had, what would the chances have been of my success?

Getting representation is one step

"One in 6,000.

Those are the odds of an unpublished author convincing a literary agent to represent your novel, according to Mark Malatesta at Literary-Agents.com.

“The best book agents can get as many as 1,500 queries per month, and they sometimes only offer to represent approximately six new clients per year,” he writes. Of those six new clients, three will most likely have been published elsewhere already. By that math, in a calendar year, a top agent may receive as many as 18,000 queries and represent as few as three unpublished authors from that pile. Others are more optimistic, saying that an unpublished author has a one in 500 chance of finding representation."

— Getting an Agent to Rep Your Novel Is Hard AF. Here's How I Did It. Matthew McCreary. Entrepreneur.com. Sep. 6, 2021

Getting published is another step

Then the agent represents your book to publishers, who may or may not offer publication. Many large publishers only read submissions from agents. Authors cannot submit directly to them.

See a map of The Big Five US Trade Book Publishers on almossawi.com

Please read

If querying frustrates you, please read:

Query by Zilla Novikov

No, it won't solve your problem, but you won't be alone anymore.

Or, invent a genre

"Lester understood how to sell to the mall bookstores, B. Dalton and Waldenbooks. 'Those two chains rule the world,' he told authors, and the chains had specific limits for genre fiction: Novels should only reach a certain length; Waldenbooks would only stock titles with initial print runs upward of 20,000. Lester also was not preoccupied with artistry. He disdained academics, professional critics, and highbrow novelists. He wanted to give the people entertainment. And he couldn’t wait on submissions for a genre he had only just invented—he had to build it from scratch—so, according to fellow editor David Hartwell, he contrived a formula. 'The books would be original novels set in invented worlds in which magic works. Each would have a male central character who triumphed over the forces of evil (usually associated with technical knowledge of some variety) by innate virtue, and with the help of a tutor or tutelary spirit."
The Man Who Invented Fantasy: All those wizards, ogres, and barely-clad elf queens in the bookstore? You have Lester del Rey to thank. Dan Sinykin. Slate. October 1, 2023.